Without Obamacare, We Would Have Even More School Crossing Guards

Adrian Dantley was a six-time NBA all-star who averaged over 24 points per game during his 15-year career.  He was inducted into the Naismith Hall of Fame in 2008.  He made good money and reportedly invested it well.

Today Adrian Dantley is 58 years old.  Like most 58 year-olds, he wants health insurance.  But the NBA does not offer health insurance to its retirees. 

So Dantley recently took a job as a school crossing guard – for the health insurance.  The story is all over the sports pages this week.  I’m sure that it is drawing more than its fair share of giggles and head shakes.

But I’ve known a lot of school crossing guards in my life.  And many do it for exactly the same reason.

As a summary of news reports recently digested by Kaiser Health News shows, it isn’t always easy for a 50-something retiree to get health insurance.

In just a few months, the Affordable Care Act will change this – and not just for 50-somethings.

But despite all of the attention to ACA in the three years since it was enacted, most of us still don’t really understand how it will affect us personally.

In recent weeks, some analysts and insurers have said to be prepared for sticker shock as 15-20 million currently uninsured people gain private insurance, and up to 17 million more move onto government-sponsored programs. 

So when a typical, middle income family has to buy insurance in this post-ACA world, what will it cost and what will they find?

The gross cost will indeed be high, but the net cost much lower.

You can plug your own numbers into the Kaiser Family Foundation’s excellent subsidy calculator and see for yourself. 

But this example will give you an idea.  The full premium cost of health insurance for a middle-class family of four making $46,850 per year will be $14,245 – almost one-third of that family’s total income.  They will then get back a tax credit worth $11,294.  So their net health insurance cost will be $246 per month.

And their ACA tax credit will be so big that they will end up paying virtually nothing in net taxes to the federal government. 

Instead, their entire tax burden – something that has historically supported spending on defense, highways, energy development, environmental protection, public health, education, social services, veterans’ services, childhood nutrition, and more – will essentially be returned to them to pay for their health insurance.

This will be true for many.  According to recent data from the Congressional Budget Office, the average ACA tax credit in 2014 will be worth $5,510. 

But, remember, you only get the credit if you personally pay the bill.

Where will we find our insurance, and what will it look like?

We will find insurance through new exchanges that seem as shrouded in mystery as the creation of the universe.

But when the exchanges come into existence in six months, they won’t be quite so exotic. 

We will just find a number of standard insurance plans from a variety of well-know insurers that we or our employers will be able to buy through premium payments and tax credits.  Nearly all will cover a standard set of health and mental health benefits.

Some plans will cover additional services, and be given a higher rating, “gold” versus “silver,” for example.  And co-pays and deductibles won’t disappear.  Premiums for insurance plans with lower deductibles will be higher; those with higher deductibles will cost less.

Health care procedures will still be covered, providers will still be paid, and insurers will still occasionally deny reimbursements for reasons that we can’t fathom.

Who will be left out?

If nothing else changes, in another three years thirty million people will remain uninsured. 

• Six million people who, for the privilege of avoiding the health insurance system in its entirety, choose to pay up to 2.5 percent of their income as a tax penalty to help pay for uncompensated care.
• Up to 12 million people with serious mental illnesses or addiction disorders who are currently not receiving care (except when they are in jail).
• Twelve million more who fall through the cracks, or are uninsured for short periods of time.

But at least Andrian Dantley and 68,520 others will have a choice.  They won’t have to work as crossing guards anymore just for the insurance.

To reach Paul Gionfriddo via email: gionfriddopaul@gmail.com.  Twitter: @pgionfriddo.  Facebook: www.facebook.com/paul.gionfriddo.  LinkedIn:  www.linkedin.com/in/paulgionfriddo/